Trump returns to Texas as Senate race tightens before midterms

President Donald Trump has made his third trip to Texas in a single month, using a campaign stop in Lubbock to try to help Republicans hold Congress in next week's midterm elections. Texas has become a major focus of his final push, and the state's Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has tightened. Polls show a close contest, and spending has topped half a billion dollars.

Both Trump and Talarico campaigned in Lubbock on the same night. The city sits in the Texas panhandle, in a county that traditionally votes about 70% Republican. The fact that Talarico believes he can win votes there, and that Trump and Paxton feel the need to defend the area, is a sign of how close the race has become, according to a correspondent on the ground. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, so a Democratic Senate win would break with more than three decades of state politics.

Republicans in the state describe the race as a perfect storm. They point to a difficult national climate for the party, Trump's unpopularity, high gas and grocery costs, and Texas-specific issues. Those include ICE enforcement on the border and the building of data centres around the state, which has angered some traditionally conservative rural voters. Candidate factors also matter. Talarico is seen as a compelling candidate who has run a clean campaign, while Paxton, who unseated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, carries political baggage and is disliked by some Republicans.

The third Trump trip also says something about the Republican defensive posture. The correspondent said Republicans are defending Texas, and that holding the state has psychological value for the party. Losing it would be a real blow, in the same way that a Democratic loss in a state such as California would be a blow for Democrats.