Trump faces midterm test as polls point to Republican losses

US midterm elections are less than three weeks away, with all 435 House seats, about a third of the Senate and several governorships up for election. Republicans currently hold both chambers of Congress. In the House they have 219 seats, including one independent who usually votes with them, against the 218 needed for a majority. In the Senate they have 53 seats, against the 51 needed for control.

President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but his agenda and political legacy are at stake. If Democrats win control of either chamber, they can frustrate his legislative programme in the final two years of his second term. If they win the House, they could also pursue impeachment again. Senate control would then be critical for Trump, because the Senate decides whether to convict a president after impeachment. A loss in either chamber would make him a lame duck president, with much of his domestic agenda blocked.

The polling is poor for Republicans. Trump's approval rating is in the mid to low 30s and his disapproval rating is in the 50s to 60s. A majority of voters are unhappy with his handling of the economy, inflation and energy costs. Affordability is the dominant issue, covering food, fuel, housing and healthcare. An Associated Press poll found that a majority blame the president and the Iran war for their rising cost of living. Trump has called the Iran war a 'small price to pay' to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon, but voters appear unconvinced. He has also suggested the war could end immediately after the elections, though there is a stalemate between Washington and Tehran.

The Senate is too close to call. The House looks likely to move to the Democrats, but the size of their win matters. A narrow Democratic majority could give the Democratic Socialists real influence, while a wider win would make a more mainstream Speaker more likely. Turnout appears to favour the Democrats, but the shift is not an overwhelming pro-Democratic wave. Some voters who backed Trump in 2024 over dislike of the Democrats are drifting back, though not decisively. Republicans still have a large cash advantage, the Democratic Party is divided over progressive candidates, and redistricting has given Republicans a potential advantage of five or six seats. North Carolina, a reliably Republican state, could be lost, while New Hampshire and Minnesota may come into play for Republicans.

Trump has campaigned confidently, telling crowds that when he visits a state, Republican candidates win. He has said people should 'pretend that I'm on the ballot'. He has promised a 'Trump dividend' of $5,000 for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms, a proposal that would cost more than a trillion dollars. History suggests the president's party usually loses seats in midterms, though Bill Clinton's Democrats gained House seats in 1998. Trump has signed more than 500 executive orders, more than Joe Biden and Barack Obama combined, but such orders cannot override laws passed by Congress and can be challenged in court. Trump also moved to end a minor scandal by dropping his latest press secretary, Katie Zacharias, after less than a week in the job following a poor news conference and questions about her CV.

Key races show how national and local issues are mixing. In Michigan's 7th district, Republican Tom Barrett is facing Democrat Will Lawrence. Barrett broke ranks with Trump by voting against continuing the Iran war and said he faced tremendous pressure, including an angry call from the president. Lawrence is a progressive candidate gaining traction. Both oppose a proposed 400-acre hyperscale AI data centre, a local planning fight that has become a proxy for wider fears about change. Housing costs, living costs and America's place in the world are also driving voters. In the Michigan Senate race, progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, sometimes called Michigan's Mamdani, is running against Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and ex-FBI agent. El-Sayed's campaign focuses on healthcare and ending military aid to Israel. A strong result for him could pull the Democratic Party further left.

If the midterms go badly for Trump, he may lean more heavily on foreign policy, where he has greater freedom as commander-in-chief. Democrats are likely to investigate allegations of corruption, although no findings of corruption have been made. A diesel oil deal with Russia was intended to ease fuel cost worries, but it is a drop in the ocean. The Iran war has pushed up petrol, heating and energy prices in Britain and Europe, and the British government is largely powerless over the conflict. If the midterm result pushes Trump to end the war sooner, that could help Britain. European elections may also move to the right just as the US may move left. In France, next year's presidential election could produce a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, with Le Pen winning on current polling.