Israel votes in tight election as record turnout challenges Netanyahu

Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday in the first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. The vote is widely described as one of the most consequential in the country's history. It is also a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, after three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and other regional fronts.

Turnout was reported to be the highest in decades, with officials and broadcasters citing record numbers by midday and 55.7 per cent at one point. A heavy storm in Jerusalem and other areas disrupted queues, and there were questions about whether later voting would match the morning rush. About 70,000 Israelis reportedly flew home to vote. More than half a million first-time voters were eligible.

The campaign has been dominated by security and accountability for the 7 October attacks. Netanyahu, leading Likud, has presented himself as 'Mr Security' and says only he can keep Israel safe. He points to blows against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His opponents blame him for the security failures that allowed the attacks and demand an inquiry. The US president, Donald Trump, endorsed Netanyahu, warning that Israel needed him to continue his mission against Iran.

Netanyahu's main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defence Forces chief who formed the Yashar party last year. Eisenkot is running as a low-key, centrist figure and has framed the election as a battle for Israel's identity, democracy and tolerance. He lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. His allies say he offers a change of tone and accountability. Polls put the two camps almost neck and neck, and no party is projected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Because no single party has ever won an outright majority, coalition talks are expected. The president, Isaac Herzog, will consult parties and choose a candidate to try to form a government. That person will have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. The Arab-majority parties could hold the balance of power. The Joint List says it is ready to vote with a coalition that ousts Netanyahu, though it sets conditions. The Islamist Ra'am party has previously joined a coalition and wants influence. Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed that his opponents would rely on Arab parties, a claim they reject. Eisenkot has ruled out forming a government with Arab support.

First-time voters have been a focus of the campaign. Polls suggest more than 16 per cent of them support far-right parties, including Itamar Ben-Gvir's faction. Ben-Gvir's positions, more settlements, more weapons and fewer Palestinians, have been more popular with some 18-year-olds than with their parents. Analysts say younger voters have moved right for years, and that the war and the absence of a peace process have shifted the debate. Ben-Gvir has used TikTok and Instagram effectively, while opposition parties have tried to catch up. Half a million first-time voters were seen as potentially decisive.

Arab citizens of Israel, also called Palestinian citizens, make up about a fifth of the population and one in six voters. Many said they felt stigmatised by the current government and by hostile rhetoric. Arab parties urged supporters to vote in larger numbers, hoping to influence coalition talks. There were reports of intimidation at polling stations, including people carrying weapons, and complaints that ballot papers were only in Hebrew. Netanyahu claimed irregularities and high Arab turnout was an emergency, and his party asked to extend voting hours. The central election committee rejected the request. The opposition said there were no exceptional circumstances and accused him of laying the ground for a challenge to the result.

Haredi conscription has also become a central issue. Ultra-Orthodox men have long had exemptions from military service, and the war has sharpened anger over the arrangement. Netanyahu's coalition has depended on Haredi parties, which resist change. A new Haredi party, Haredi Public, is calling for those not in full-time study to serve and for more secular education. It has fielded Haredi women candidates for the first time. Eisenkot supports universal conscription.

On the ground, the occupied West Bank was shut off for voting day. In Hebron, residents described mass displacement after an attack on Israeli soldiers and subsequent demolitions. Palestinian and human rights groups called it collective punishment. The war in Gaza was barely mentioned by the leading candidates, even though whoever wins will shape its future. There were also claims of a confrontation between Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff over a possible new strike on Iran around the election. Both sides denied or declined to confirm details.

Exit polls were expected after voting ended, but the final result and the shape of the next government may take days or weeks. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can be sure of a majority, and the Arab parties, the Haredi parties and other smaller groups will matter in the negotiations.